Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $23.88 - $63.34 | $36.51 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.72 - $19.28 | $18.48 |
| Blended Fair Value | $27.50 | |
| Current Price | $13.98 | |
| Upside | 96.69% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.65% | 11.17% | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.77% | 5.04% | 11.17% | 22.02% | 4.18% | 0.16% | 16.32% | 9.02% | 12.44% | 27.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.88% | 5.79% | 5.68% | 4.07% | 4.24% | 5.29% | 5.38% | 3.86% | 3.73% | 4.50% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 5.64 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5.43 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 0.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1.13 | 0.70 | 0.42 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1.13 | -0.70 | -0.42 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -0.92 | -0.50 | -0.21 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.54 | 5.54 | 5.54 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.81 | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $23.88 | $36.51 | $63.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 70.79% | 161.16% | 353.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 5.64 | 6.00 | 6.39 | 6.81 | 7.25 | 7.72 | 7.95 |
| Payout Ratio | 96.30% | 95.04% | 93.78% | 92.52% | 91.26% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5.43 | 5.70 | 5.99 | 6.30 | 6.62 | 6.95 | 7.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5.18 | 5.23 | 5.28 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4.94 | 5.04 | 5.13 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4.71 | 4.85 | 4.99 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4.50 | 4.67 | 4.85 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4.29 | 4.50 | 4.71 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 74.46 | 78.05 | 81.79 |
| Equity Value (M) | 98.08 | 102.33 | 106.74 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.54 | 5.54 | 5.54 |
| Fair Value | $17.72 | $18.48 | $19.28 |
| Upside / Downside | 26.72% | 32.22% | 37.91% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
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| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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