Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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UOL Group Limited (U14.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.00 - $62.57$39.53
Multi-Stage$36.84 - $40.45$38.61
Blended Fair Value$39.07
Current Price$6.18
Upside532.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.75%11.45%0.200.180.150.150.170.170.170.090.080.07
YoY Growth--11.12%20.05%0.03%-14.22%0.06%0.08%104.90%11.93%4.49%7.67%
Dividend Yield--3.88%2.92%2.23%2.11%2.27%2.10%2.82%0.95%1.27%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,136.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)321.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)815.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)227.28142.0585.23
Cash Retained (M)815.32815.32815.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-227.28-142.05-85.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)588.04673.27730.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)845.00845.00845.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$27.00$39.53$62.57
Upside / Downside336.82%539.59%912.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,136.391,171.901,208.531,246.291,285.241,325.401,365.16
Payout Ratio28.25%40.60%52.95%65.30%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)321.08475.83639.94813.85998.001,192.861,262.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)443.73448.07452.42
Year 2 PV (M)556.50567.46578.51
Year 3 PV (M)659.99679.56699.53
Year 4 PV (M)754.72784.72815.60
Year 5 PV (M)841.22883.22926.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,871.6629,263.2430,709.84
Equity Value (M)31,127.8232,626.2634,182.78
Shares Outstanding (M)845.00845.00845.00
Fair Value$36.84$38.61$40.45
Upside / Downside496.08%524.77%554.58%

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