Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Textron Inc. (TXT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.20 - $33.15$28.73
Multi-Stage$41.75 - $46.07$43.86
Blended Fair Value$36.30
Current Price$83.49
Upside-56.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.36%-3.13%0.080.090.090.090.090.100.110.110.110.14
YoY Growth---5.88%-5.56%0.00%0.00%-10.00%-4.76%-4.55%0.00%-21.43%27.27%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.09%0.13%0.13%0.16%0.42%0.21%0.19%0.24%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)892.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)876.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)178.40111.5066.90
Cash Retained (M)876.00876.00876.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-178.40-111.50-66.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)697.60764.50809.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.31193.31193.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.613.954.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.613.954.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.694.044.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-5.13%-4.13%-3.13%
Fair Value$24.20$28.73$33.15
Upside / Downside-71.02%-65.59%-60.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)892.00855.12819.77785.88753.38722.24743.90
Payout Ratio1.79%19.43%37.08%54.72%72.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.00166.19303.94430.01545.14650.01688.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-5.13%-4.13%-3.13%
Year 1 PV (M)150.41152.00153.58
Year 2 PV (M)248.96254.24259.57
Year 3 PV (M)318.78328.97339.37
Year 4 PV (M)365.76381.43397.59
Year 5 PV (M)394.71415.96438.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,592.096,946.947,316.90
Equity Value (M)8,070.728,479.538,905.14
Shares Outstanding (M)193.31193.31193.31
Fair Value$41.75$43.86$46.07
Upside / Downside-49.99%-47.46%-44.82%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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