Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TTW Public Company Limited (TTW-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.69 - $10.11$8.30
Multi-Stage$16.91 - $18.60$17.74
Blended Fair Value$13.02
Current Price$8.65
Upside50.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-0.80%0.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.65
YoY Growth---0.01%0.00%0.01%0.00%-0.03%0.00%0.01%0.00%-7.70%0.02%
Dividend Yield--6.90%6.63%6.86%5.40%5.08%4.72%4.96%4.96%5.66%6.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,130.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,393.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)736.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)626.06391.29234.77
Cash Retained (M)736.85736.85736.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-626.06-391.29-234.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.79345.56502.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,990.003,990.003,990.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.80%-1.80%-0.80%
Fair Value$6.69$8.30$10.11
Upside / Downside-22.67%-4.03%16.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,130.293,074.013,018.742,964.462,911.162,858.822,944.59
Payout Ratio76.46%79.17%81.88%84.58%87.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,393.442,433.652,471.642,507.472,541.222,572.942,723.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.80%-1.80%-0.80%
Year 1 PV (M)2,265.612,288.922,312.23
Year 2 PV (M)2,142.102,186.402,231.16
Year 3 PV (M)2,023.112,086.192,150.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,908.771,988.532,070.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,799.151,893.621,992.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,316.0660,325.6463,460.35
Equity Value (M)67,454.7970,769.3274,217.11
Shares Outstanding (M)3,990.003,990.003,990.00
Fair Value$16.91$17.74$18.60
Upside / Downside95.44%105.05%115.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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