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Definitive Analysis

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PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk (TSPC.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,695.71 - $65,469.76$22,307.40
Multi-Stage$9,075.26 - $9,944.37$9,501.73
Blended Fair Value$15,904.57
Current Price$2,370.00
Upside571.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.42%4.28%88.16128.3864.7765.6040.7432.0631.8139.3239.1049.67
YoY Growth---31.33%98.22%-1.28%61.03%27.06%0.80%-19.10%0.58%-21.28%-14.31%
Dividend Yield--3.58%6.72%4.61%4.45%2.75%3.32%1.79%2.42%1.99%2.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,501,326.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)504,656.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)996,669.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)300,265.28187,665.80112,599.48
Cash Retained (M)996,669.95996,669.95996,669.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-300,265.28-187,665.80-112,599.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)696,404.67809,004.15884,070.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,503.584,503.584,503.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share154.63179.64196.30
LTM Dividend per Share112.06112.06112.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share154.63179.64196.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend266.69291.69308.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$11,695.71$22,307.40$65,469.76
Upside / Downside393.49%841.24%2,662.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,501,326.411,578,760.621,660,188.671,745,816.551,835,860.881,930,549.451,988,465.93
Payout Ratio33.61%44.89%56.17%67.45%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)504,656.46708,725.09932,501.811,177,476.731,445,241.241,737,494.501,839,330.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)658,938.53665,264.88671,591.23
Year 2 PV (M)806,090.63821,643.20837,344.38
Year 3 PV (M)946,353.99973,873.851,001,922.13
Year 4 PV (M)1,079,962.621,122,037.861,165,330.72
Year 5 PV (M)1,207,143.531,266,214.831,327,576.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,172,649.1237,942,749.5139,781,477.08
Equity Value (M)40,871,138.4242,791,784.1344,785,241.87
Shares Outstanding (M)4,503.584,503.584,503.58
Fair Value$9,075.26$9,501.73$9,944.37
Upside / Downside282.92%300.92%319.59%

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