Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $23.41 - $34.42 | $28.70 |
| Multi-Stage | $36.79 - $40.32 | $38.52 |
| Blended Fair Value | $33.61 | |
| Current Price | $36.30 | |
| Upside | -7.41% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.76% | 0.98% | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.31 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.08% | 1.47% | 2.71% | -0.20% | -0.20% | 3.19% | 1.48% | 0.53% | 0.46% | 0.40% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.73% | 5.13% | 4.44% | 4.33% | 3.76% | 5.13% | 3.42% | 3.14% | 3.36% | 4.33% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 56.85 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 27.37 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 29.49 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 11.37 | 7.11 | 4.26 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 29.49 | 29.49 | 29.49 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -11.37 | -7.11 | -4.26 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 18.12 | 22.38 | 25.22 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.02 | 19.02 | 19.02 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.39 | 2.62 | 2.77 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.02% | -0.02% | 0.98% |
| Fair Value | $23.41 | $28.70 | $34.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -35.51% | -20.94% | -5.18% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 56.85 | 56.84 | 56.84 | 56.83 | 56.82 | 56.81 | 58.51 |
| Payout Ratio | 48.14% | 56.51% | 64.88% | 73.25% | 81.63% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 27.37 | 32.12 | 36.88 | 41.63 | 46.38 | 51.13 | 54.12 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.02% | -0.02% | 0.98% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 29.15 | 29.44 | 29.74 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 30.37 | 30.98 | 31.60 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 31.11 | 32.06 | 33.03 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 31.45 | 32.74 | 34.07 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 31.46 | 33.08 | 34.77 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 546.13 | 574.28 | 603.58 |
| Equity Value (M) | 699.66 | 732.58 | 766.79 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.02 | 19.02 | 19.02 |
| Fair Value | $36.79 | $38.52 | $40.32 |
| Upside / Downside | 1.35% | 6.12% | 11.08% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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