Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.16 - $32.83$24.28
Multi-Stage$29.11 - $31.98$30.52
Blended Fair Value$27.40
Current Price$41.92
Upside-34.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.69%2.86%0.350.350.340.330.330.320.320.310.310.29
YoY Growth--1.75%1.81%2.04%1.37%1.49%2.10%1.58%1.59%7.18%7.97%
Dividend Yield--1.12%1.12%0.80%1.04%1.12%1.04%1.01%1.30%1.04%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.7511.727.03
Cash Retained (M)67.8267.8267.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.75-11.72-7.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.0756.1060.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.4672.4672.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate0.90%1.90%2.90%
Fair Value$18.16$24.28$32.83
Upside / Downside-56.68%-42.07%-21.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.7795.5597.3699.21101.09103.01106.10
Payout Ratio27.67%40.14%52.60%65.07%77.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.9538.3551.2264.5678.3892.7198.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate0.90%1.90%2.90%
Year 1 PV (M)35.6135.9636.31
Year 2 PV (M)44.1545.0345.92
Year 3 PV (M)51.6753.2254.80
Year 4 PV (M)58.2460.5963.00
Year 5 PV (M)63.9667.1970.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,855.511,949.302,046.84
Equity Value (M)2,109.142,211.292,317.44
Shares Outstanding (M)72.4672.4672.46
Fair Value$29.11$30.52$31.98
Upside / Downside-30.56%-27.20%-23.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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