Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.24 - $154.40$93.19
Multi-Stage$53.89 - $59.05$56.42
Blended Fair Value$74.81
Current Price$98.86
Upside-24.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.79%0.00%0.270.240.230.220.210.190.130.040.000.00
YoY Growth--9.07%5.81%3.76%7.73%7.67%52.33%201.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.84%1.10%0.66%0.40%0.91%0.27%0.21%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.476.553.93
Cash Retained (M)47.0247.0247.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.47-6.55-3.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.5540.4743.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.282.492.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$62.24$93.19$154.40
Upside / Downside-37.04%-5.73%56.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.3755.0257.8060.7263.7967.0269.03
Payout Ratio10.22%26.17%42.13%58.09%74.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.3514.4024.3535.2747.2360.3263.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)13.2213.3513.48
Year 2 PV (M)20.5320.9321.33
Year 3 PV (M)27.3128.1028.91
Year 4 PV (M)33.5834.8936.24
Year 5 PV (M)39.3841.3143.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)856.63898.59942.18
Equity Value (M)990.651,037.171,085.45
Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
Fair Value$53.89$56.42$59.05
Upside / Downside-45.49%-42.93%-40.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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