Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$259.92 - $564.99$372.22
Multi-Stage$185.46 - $202.72$193.93
Blended Fair Value$283.08
Current Price$134.95
Upside109.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.97%0.00%0.930.910.890.770.570.640.620.390.000.00
YoY Growth--2.55%2.45%16.02%35.41%-11.08%3.14%59.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.67%0.89%1.29%0.96%1.23%1.39%1.04%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,346.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,250.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.30168.31100.99
Cash Retained (M)1,250.121,250.121,250.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.30-168.31-100.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)980.821,081.811,149.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.12100.12100.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.8010.8111.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.8010.8111.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.7611.7712.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$259.92$372.22$564.99
Upside / Downside92.61%175.82%318.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,346.491,434.011,527.221,626.491,732.211,844.801,900.15
Payout Ratio7.16%23.73%40.29%56.86%73.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.37340.23615.38924.871,271.991,660.321,757.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)306.77309.67312.58
Year 2 PV (M)500.28509.81519.43
Year 3 PV (M)677.93697.39717.22
Year 4 PV (M)840.67873.00906.25
Year 5 PV (M)989.401,037.191,086.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,252.4815,989.1816,754.07
Equity Value (M)18,567.5219,416.2420,296.36
Shares Outstanding (M)100.12100.12100.12
Fair Value$185.46$193.93$202.72
Upside / Downside37.42%43.71%50.22%

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