Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.58 - $25.79$21.53
Multi-Stage$47.81 - $52.66$50.19
Blended Fair Value$35.86
Current Price$25.00
Upside43.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.32%15.28%1.661.601.671.460.602.301.201.201.101.00
YoY Growth--3.67%-3.92%13.96%141.94%-73.73%91.61%0.00%9.09%10.00%150.00%
Dividend Yield--6.85%6.69%6.94%5.87%2.63%10.31%5.45%5.74%4.95%5.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)350.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)265.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.1743.8626.31
Cash Retained (M)85.7585.7585.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.17-43.86-26.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.5841.9059.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)150.00150.00150.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.771.771.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.872.052.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.91%-2.91%-1.91%
Fair Value$17.58$21.53$25.79
Upside / Downside-29.69%-13.87%3.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)350.85340.64330.72321.09311.74302.66311.74
Payout Ratio75.56%78.45%81.34%84.22%87.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)265.10267.22268.99270.43271.56272.40288.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.91%-2.91%-1.91%
Year 1 PV (M)248.75251.34253.93
Year 2 PV (M)233.10237.98242.90
Year 3 PV (M)218.16225.04232.06
Year 4 PV (M)203.93212.55221.44
Year 5 PV (M)190.42200.54211.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,077.586,400.486,736.96
Equity Value (M)7,171.947,527.927,898.38
Shares Outstanding (M)150.00150.00150.00
Fair Value$47.81$50.19$52.66
Upside / Downside91.25%100.74%110.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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