Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.50 - $26.60$13.64
Multi-Stage$6.44 - $7.03$6.73
Blended Fair Value$10.19
Current Price$13.18
Upside-22.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.43%11.81%0.210.210.210.210.200.200.180.130.100.08
YoY Growth--0.98%1.13%-0.01%2.93%2.11%9.91%34.11%35.80%18.34%20.13%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.68%1.42%1.45%1.13%1.12%0.92%0.83%0.66%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.1911.376.82
Cash Retained (M)31.4331.4331.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.19-11.37-6.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.2320.0624.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)279.69279.69279.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Fair Value$8.50$13.64$26.60
Upside / Downside-35.49%3.49%101.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90.9696.29101.94107.92114.25120.95124.57
Payout Ratio65.45%70.36%75.27%80.18%85.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.5367.7576.7386.5397.21108.85115.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Year 1 PV (M)62.1062.6963.28
Year 2 PV (M)64.4665.7066.94
Year 3 PV (M)66.6368.5570.51
Year 4 PV (M)68.6171.2673.99
Year 5 PV (M)70.4173.8377.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,469.391,540.801,614.96
Equity Value (M)1,801.591,882.831,967.08
Shares Outstanding (M)279.69279.69279.69
Fair Value$6.44$6.73$7.03
Upside / Downside-51.13%-48.92%-46.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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