Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$628.80 - $2,357.50$1,868.80
Multi-Stage$295.04 - $322.75$308.64
Blended Fair Value$1,088.72
Current Price$100.95
Upside978.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.93%8.33%4.424.133.363.853.212.112.982.672.432.20
YoY Growth--7.03%22.92%-12.60%19.98%51.78%-29.03%11.29%10.05%10.58%10.57%
Dividend Yield--4.38%4.99%4.12%4.18%3.15%2.91%4.07%3.62%3.25%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,538.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,663.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,875.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,107.602,567.251,540.35
Cash Retained (M)12,875.0012,875.0012,875.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,107.60-2,567.25-1,540.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,767.4010,307.7511,334.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,732.551,732.551,732.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.065.956.54
LTM Dividend per Share4.424.424.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.065.956.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4810.3710.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$628.80$1,868.80$2,357.50
Upside / Downside522.89%1,751.22%2,235.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,538.0021,872.9723,294.7124,808.8726,421.4528,138.8428,983.01
Payout Ratio37.31%47.85%58.39%68.92%79.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,663.0010,466.0113,601.0417,099.4020,995.0825,324.9626,809.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,681.239,773.009,864.76
Year 2 PV (M)11,637.8011,859.4712,083.23
Year 3 PV (M)13,534.0913,922.6114,318.49
Year 4 PV (M)15,371.4715,962.6116,570.64
Year 5 PV (M)17,151.2617,979.6718,839.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)443,804.28465,240.19487,496.51
Equity Value (M)511,180.12534,737.54559,173.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,732.551,732.551,732.55
Fair Value$295.04$308.64$322.75
Upside / Downside192.27%205.74%219.71%

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