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Definitive Analysis

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Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. (TCBS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.33 - $13.06$10.50
Multi-Stage$19.92 - $21.96$20.92
Blended Fair Value$15.71
Current Price$16.05
Upside-2.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.170.130.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--36.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.500.310.19
Cash Retained (M)2.032.032.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.50-0.31-0.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.531.721.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.942.942.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.33$10.50$13.06
Upside / Downside-48.10%-34.55%-18.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.522.492.472.442.422.392.47
Payout Ratio19.22%33.38%47.53%61.69%75.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.480.831.171.511.832.162.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)0.780.780.79
Year 2 PV (M)1.021.041.06
Year 3 PV (M)1.221.261.30
Year 4 PV (M)1.391.451.51
Year 5 PV (M)1.531.601.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)52.5255.2558.10
Equity Value (M)58.4561.3964.45
Shares Outstanding (M)2.942.942.94
Fair Value$19.92$20.92$21.96
Upside / Downside24.09%30.32%36.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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