Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Saraswanti Indoland Development Tbk (SWID.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.79 - $128.50$100.28
Multi-Stage$251.66 - $277.77$264.46
Blended Fair Value$182.37
Current Price$93.00
Upside96.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.091.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,395.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,002.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)29,393.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,479.094,674.432,804.66
Cash Retained (M)29,393.1629,393.1629,393.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,479.09-4,674.43-2,804.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,914.0724,718.7326,588.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,385.025,385.025,385.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.074.594.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.074.594.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.566.086.42
WACC / Discount Rate5.00%5.00%5.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$77.79$100.28$128.50
Upside / Downside-16.35%7.83%38.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,395.4737,021.5136,651.3036,284.7935,921.9435,562.7236,629.60
Payout Ratio21.40%35.12%48.84%62.56%76.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,002.3113,001.7017,900.3022,699.6427,401.1932,006.4533,882.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.00%5.00%5.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12,257.6312,382.7112,507.79
Year 2 PV (M)15,910.1216,236.4716,566.14
Year 3 PV (M)19,021.2219,609.4620,209.71
Year 4 PV (M)21,646.8822,544.0423,468.81
Year 5 PV (M)23,838.0025,079.3026,371.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,262,505.541,328,247.131,396,699.29
Equity Value (M)1,355,179.391,424,099.121,495,823.52
Shares Outstanding (M)5,385.025,385.025,385.02
Fair Value$251.66$264.46$277.77
Upside / Downside170.60%184.36%198.68%

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