Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.51 - $37.58$24.97
Multi-Stage$12.44 - $13.60$13.01
Blended Fair Value$18.99
Current Price$38.71
Upside-50.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220222021201920182017201620162014
DPS46.71%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.010.080.180.00
YoY Growth---30.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.50%-84.85%-54.64%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.34%0.92%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)146.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.4718.4211.05
Cash Retained (M)146.90146.90146.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.47-18.42-11.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.42128.48135.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.07160.07160.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.800.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.800.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.51$24.97$37.58
Upside / Downside-54.75%-35.50%-2.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.37156.94167.15178.01189.58201.90207.96
Payout Ratio0.32%18.25%36.19%54.13%72.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.4728.6560.4996.35136.62181.71192.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.8226.0626.30
Year 2 PV (M)49.1250.0551.00
Year 3 PV (M)70.4972.5274.58
Year 4 PV (M)90.0793.5397.09
Year 5 PV (M)107.94113.16118.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,647.431,727.001,809.62
Equity Value (M)1,990.862,082.322,177.16
Shares Outstanding (M)160.07160.07160.07
Fair Value$12.44$13.01$13.60
Upside / Downside-67.87%-66.39%-64.86%

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