Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4.76 - $8.62 | $6.37 |
| Multi-Stage | $8.33 - $9.15 | $8.73 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7.55 | |
| Current Price | $2.06 | |
| Upside | 266.49% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.11% | -5.23% | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 20.00% | -19.56% | 116.98% | -35.76% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -25.00% | 37.50% | -38.46% | -31.58% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 10.18% | 6.01% | 7.57% | 3.29% | 5.81% | 8.97% | 5.81% | 6.11% | 3.76% | 7.37% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 216.13 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 105.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 110.53 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 43.23 | 27.02 | 16.21 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 110.53 | 110.53 | 110.53 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -43.23 | -27.02 | -16.21 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 67.31 | 83.52 | 94.32 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 640.00 | 640.00 | 640.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 0.63% | 1.63% | 2.63% |
| Fair Value | $4.76 | $6.37 | $8.62 |
| Upside / Downside | 130.84% | 209.04% | 318.67% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 216.13 | 219.66 | 223.24 | 226.88 | 230.59 | 234.35 | 241.38 |
| Payout Ratio | 48.86% | 57.09% | 65.31% | 73.54% | 81.77% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 105.60 | 125.39 | 145.81 | 166.86 | 188.55 | 210.91 | 223.27 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 0.63% | 1.63% | 2.63% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 116.75 | 117.91 | 119.07 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 126.40 | 128.92 | 131.47 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 134.67 | 138.72 | 142.86 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 141.69 | 147.40 | 153.29 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 147.56 | 155.04 | 162.82 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,664.79 | 4,901.22 | 5,147.14 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,331.85 | 5,589.21 | 5,856.65 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 640.00 | 640.00 | 640.00 |
| Fair Value | $8.33 | $8.73 | $9.15 |
| Upside / Downside | 304.42% | 323.94% | 344.23% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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