Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $44.67 - $72.42 | $57.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $57.55 - $62.88 | $60.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $58.65 | |
| Current Price | $94.77 | |
| Upside | -38.11% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.82% | 4.70% | 2.67 | 2.74 | 2.62 | 2.51 | 2.42 | 2.32 | 2.19 | 2.08 | 1.90 | 1.77 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -2.67% | 4.40% | 4.68% | 3.43% | 4.47% | 5.98% | 5.43% | 9.32% | 7.40% | 4.98% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.90% | 3.85% | 3.77% | 3.46% | 3.90% | 4.28% | 4.26% | 4.65% | 3.81% | 3.42% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,459.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,988.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,471.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 891.80 | 557.38 | 334.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,471.00 | 1,471.00 | 1,471.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -891.80 | -557.38 | -334.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 579.20 | 913.63 | 1,136.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,108.13 | 1,108.13 | 1,108.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.22 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.76% | 2.76% | 3.76% |
| Fair Value | $44.67 | $57.13 | $72.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -52.86% | -39.71% | -23.58% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,459.00 | 4,582.29 | 4,708.98 | 4,839.18 | 4,972.98 | 5,110.48 | 5,263.79 |
| Payout Ratio | 67.01% | 71.61% | 76.21% | 80.80% | 85.40% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,988.00 | 3,281.30 | 3,588.54 | 3,910.26 | 4,247.03 | 4,599.43 | 4,869.01 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.76% | 2.76% | 3.76% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,978.40 | 3,007.67 | 3,036.93 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,956.59 | 3,014.98 | 3,073.94 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,924.26 | 3,011.31 | 3,100.08 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,882.91 | 2,997.91 | 3,116.31 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,833.91 | 2,975.91 | 3,123.55 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 49,196.63 | 51,661.77 | 54,224.76 |
| Equity Value (M) | 63,772.69 | 66,669.55 | 69,675.58 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,108.13 | 1,108.13 | 1,108.13 |
| Fair Value | $57.55 | $60.16 | $62.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -39.27% | -36.52% | -33.65% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
| TQ5.SI | Frasers Property Limited | 3.98% | $0.05 | 60.69% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
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| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
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| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
| PBP.AX | Probiotec Limited | 3.91% | $0.12 | 41.70% |
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