Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $36.74 - $61.14 | $47.50 |
| Multi-Stage | $43.49 - $47.58 | $45.49 |
| Blended Fair Value | $46.50 | |
| Current Price | $40.82 | |
| Upside | 13.91% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.24% | 7.85% | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 0.50 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.70% | 7.41% | 5.63% | 97.71% | -45.53% | 9.22% | 9.06% | 11.91% | 12.78% | 15.05% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.54% | 3.36% | 2.83% | 2.30% | 1.20% | 2.21% | 1.71% | 1.62% | 1.40% | 1.76% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 69.05 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 26.75 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 42.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 13.81 | 8.63 | 5.18 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 42.30 | 42.30 | 42.30 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -13.81 | -8.63 | -5.18 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 28.49 | 33.67 | 37.12 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 22.40 | 22.40 | 22.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.27 | 1.50 | 1.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.27 | 1.50 | 1.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.47 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.24% | 3.24% | 4.24% |
| Fair Value | $36.74 | $47.50 | $61.14 |
| Upside / Downside | -9.99% | 16.38% | 49.77% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 69.05 | 71.28 | 73.59 | 75.97 | 78.43 | 80.97 | 83.40 |
| Payout Ratio | 38.74% | 48.99% | 59.24% | 69.49% | 79.75% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 26.75 | 34.92 | 43.59 | 52.79 | 62.54 | 72.87 | 77.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.24% | 3.24% | 4.24% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 31.70 | 32.01 | 32.32 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 35.92 | 36.63 | 37.34 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 39.49 | 40.66 | 41.85 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 42.46 | 44.15 | 45.88 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 44.91 | 47.15 | 49.48 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 779.62 | 818.50 | 858.92 |
| Equity Value (M) | 974.09 | 1,019.09 | 1,065.78 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 22.40 | 22.40 | 22.40 |
| Fair Value | $43.49 | $45.49 | $47.58 |
| Upside / Downside | 6.53% | 11.45% | 16.56% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
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| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
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| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
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