Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $14.22 - $22.56 | $18.02 |
| Multi-Stage | $37.44 - $41.22 | $39.29 |
| Blended Fair Value | $28.66 | |
| Current Price | $14.42 | |
| Upside | 98.73% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.43% | 0.00% | 0.69 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 44.65% | 25.02% | -7.23% | -8.22% | -11.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.78% | 3.22% | 2.57% | 2.68% | 2.66% | 3.19% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 73.38 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 52.58 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 20.80 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 14.68 | 9.17 | 5.50 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 20.80 | 20.80 | 20.80 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -14.68 | -9.17 | -5.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 6.13 | 11.63 | 15.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 51.85 | 51.85 | 51.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.13 | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.80% | 5.80% | 5.80% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $14.22 | $18.02 | $22.56 |
| Upside / Downside | -1.39% | 24.97% | 56.45% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 73.38 | 72.65 | 71.92 | 71.20 | 70.49 | 69.78 | 71.88 |
| Payout Ratio | 71.65% | 75.32% | 78.99% | 82.66% | 86.33% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 52.58 | 54.72 | 56.81 | 58.85 | 60.85 | 62.80 | 66.49 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.80% | 5.80% | 5.80% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 51.19 | 51.71 | 52.24 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 49.73 | 50.75 | 51.78 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 48.20 | 49.69 | 51.21 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 46.63 | 48.56 | 50.55 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 45.03 | 47.37 | 49.81 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,700.82 | 1,789.39 | 1,881.60 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,941.60 | 2,037.47 | 2,137.20 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 51.85 | 51.85 | 51.85 |
| Fair Value | $37.44 | $39.29 | $41.22 |
| Upside / Downside | 159.67% | 172.50% | 185.83% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
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| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
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