Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sahamit Machinery Public Company Limited (SMIT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.74 - $2.43$2.08
Multi-Stage$5.09 - $5.62$5.35
Blended Fair Value$3.72
Current Price$3.46
Upside7.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.73%-0.80%0.240.300.360.300.300.340.360.320.260.24
YoY Growth---20.00%-16.67%20.01%-0.01%-11.76%-5.56%12.50%23.08%8.33%-7.69%
Dividend Yield--6.15%6.70%7.66%6.10%7.21%11.81%6.21%5.29%5.88%6.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.5019.6911.81
Cash Retained (M)30.2830.2830.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.50-19.69-11.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.2110.6018.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)530.00530.00530.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-6.29%-5.29%-4.29%
Fair Value$1.74$2.08$2.43
Upside / Downside-49.80%-39.82%-29.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.48149.16141.27133.80126.73120.03123.63
Payout Ratio80.77%82.62%84.46%86.31%88.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.20123.23119.32115.48111.72108.03114.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-6.29%-5.29%-4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)114.44115.66116.89
Year 2 PV (M)102.92105.12107.35
Year 3 PV (M)92.5095.5098.55
Year 4 PV (M)83.1186.7190.43
Year 5 PV (M)74.6378.7082.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,232.132,353.792,480.70
Equity Value (M)2,699.732,835.492,976.87
Shares Outstanding (M)530.00530.00530.00
Fair Value$5.09$5.35$5.62
Upside / Downside47.22%54.62%62.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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