Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $61.66 - $146.35 | $137.15 |
| Multi-Stage | $22.31 - $24.37 | $23.32 |
| Blended Fair Value | $80.23 | |
| Current Price | $8.26 | |
| Upside | 871.36% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.53 | 0.30 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 78.25% | -66.35% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.24% | 3.43% | 17.37% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 15.01 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 13.76 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1.24 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3.00 | 1.88 | 1.13 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3.00 | -1.88 | -1.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -1.76 | -0.63 | 0.12 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 20.39 | 20.39 | 20.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.09 | -0.03 | 0.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.09 | -0.03 | 0.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $61.66 | $137.15 | $146.35 |
| Upside / Downside | 646.44% | 1,560.42% | 1,671.78% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 15.01 | 15.98 | 17.02 | 18.13 | 19.31 | 20.56 | 21.18 |
| Payout Ratio | 91.71% | 91.37% | 91.03% | 90.69% | 90.34% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 13.76 | 14.60 | 15.49 | 16.44 | 17.44 | 18.50 | 19.59 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 13.58 | 13.71 | 13.84 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 13.40 | 13.66 | 13.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 13.23 | 13.61 | 13.99 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 13.05 | 13.55 | 14.07 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 12.88 | 13.50 | 14.15 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 388.74 | 407.52 | 427.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 454.88 | 475.55 | 496.98 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 20.39 | 20.39 | 20.39 |
| Fair Value | $22.31 | $23.32 | $24.37 |
| Upside / Downside | 170.05% | 182.31% | 195.03% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
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| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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