Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.08 - $10.59 | $8.01 |
| Multi-Stage | $11.24 - $12.33 | $11.77 |
| Blended Fair Value | $9.89 | |
| Current Price | $5.36 | |
| Upside | 84.55% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.42% | 2.28% | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -1.87% | -15.21% | 4.64% | 15.30% | -20.52% | 0.77% | 16.40% | 17.86% | 6.25% | 6.92% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.07% | 5.23% | 6.51% | 6.94% | 4.67% | 8.26% | 6.45% | 5.87% | 4.52% | 3.95% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,131.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 931.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 200.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 226.20 | 141.38 | 84.83 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 200.00 | 200.00 | 200.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -226.20 | -141.38 | -84.83 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -26.20 | 58.63 | 115.18 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,405.67 | 2,405.67 | 2,405.67 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | 0.28% | 1.28% | 2.28% |
| Fair Value | $6.08 | $8.01 | $10.59 |
| Upside / Downside | 13.47% | 49.44% | 97.52% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,131.00 | 1,145.49 | 1,160.16 | 1,175.02 | 1,190.07 | 1,205.31 | 1,241.47 |
| Payout Ratio | 82.32% | 83.85% | 85.39% | 86.93% | 88.46% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 931.00 | 960.53 | 990.66 | 1,021.41 | 1,052.78 | 1,084.78 | 1,148.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | 0.28% | 1.28% | 2.28% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 893.15 | 902.05 | 910.96 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 856.55 | 873.71 | 891.05 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 821.18 | 845.99 | 871.30 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 787.03 | 818.89 | 851.72 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 754.07 | 792.42 | 832.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,923.68 | 24,089.68 | 25,302.65 |
| Equity Value (M) | 27,035.65 | 28,322.76 | 29,660.00 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,405.67 | 2,405.67 | 2,405.67 |
| Fair Value | $11.24 | $11.77 | $12.33 |
| Upside / Downside | 109.67% | 119.65% | 130.02% |
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