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Definitive Analysis

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Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (SFBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$264.44 - $396.92$371.97
Multi-Stage$65.59 - $71.81$68.64
Blended Fair Value$220.31
Current Price$46.06
Upside378.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.32%14.48%0.760.740.790.790.800.560.530.580.290.22
YoY Growth--1.83%-5.81%-0.39%-1.59%44.49%4.90%-9.17%102.01%29.79%13.89%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.83%2.13%2.08%1.93%2.65%1.55%1.59%0.91%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.030.640.39
Cash Retained (M)3.193.193.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.03-0.64-0.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.162.552.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.582.582.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.760.760.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$264.44$371.97$396.92
Upside / Downside474.13%707.58%761.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.145.475.836.216.617.047.25
Payout Ratio37.96%48.37%58.77%69.18%79.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.952.653.434.305.266.346.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2.472.492.52
Year 2 PV (M)2.983.043.10
Year 3 PV (M)3.493.593.69
Year 4 PV (M)3.994.154.31
Year 5 PV (M)4.494.714.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)151.48158.80166.39
Equity Value (M)168.91176.78184.94
Shares Outstanding (M)2.582.582.58
Fair Value$65.59$68.64$71.81
Upside / Downside42.39%49.03%55.91%

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