Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Siam City Cement Public Company Limited (SCCC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$291.40 - $566.35$400.67
Multi-Stage$479.00 - $525.33$501.73
Blended Fair Value$451.20
Current Price$149.00
Upside202.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.37%0.24%11.869.419.009.634.888.719.1813.1611.5811.58
YoY Growth--26.05%4.55%-6.57%97.54%-44.02%-5.16%-30.22%13.69%0.01%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--7.46%6.75%6.45%6.28%2.94%7.32%4.12%5.04%4.05%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,452.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,299.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,152.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,090.48681.55408.93
Cash Retained (M)1,152.701,152.701,152.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,090.48-681.55-408.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.22471.15743.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)298.00298.00298.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.211.582.50
LTM Dividend per Share14.4314.4314.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.211.582.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.6416.0116.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$291.40$400.67$566.35
Upside / Downside95.57%168.90%280.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,452.395,574.035,698.395,825.535,955.506,088.376,271.02
Payout Ratio78.86%81.09%83.32%85.54%87.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,299.694,519.824,747.634,983.365,227.255,479.535,800.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)4,209.734,251.314,292.90
Year 2 PV (M)4,118.534,200.304,282.88
Year 3 PV (M)4,026.434,146.944,269.83
Year 4 PV (M)3,933.724,091.484,253.93
Year 5 PV (M)3,840.674,034.154,235.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)122,614.34128,791.35135,214.82
Equity Value (M)142,743.43149,515.53156,549.70
Shares Outstanding (M)298.00298.00298.00
Fair Value$479.00$501.73$525.33
Upside / Downside221.48%236.73%252.57%

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