Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCA-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.82 - $41.98$35.85
Multi-Stage$182.66 - $202.73$192.48
Blended Fair Value$114.17
Current Price$124.60
Upside-8.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.46%-5.94%2.752.502.252.000.001.751.506.006.025.56
YoY Growth--9.97%11.14%12.46%0.00%-100.00%16.60%-74.99%-0.33%8.33%9.51%
Dividend Yield--2.10%1.56%1.63%1.10%0.00%1.75%1.63%6.78%9.67%10.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,540.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,107.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,433.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)708.00442.50265.50
Cash Retained (M)1,433.001,433.001,433.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-708.00-442.50-265.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)725.00990.501,167.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)702.16702.16702.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.411.66
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.411.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.034.414.66
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-7.94%-6.94%-5.94%
Fair Value$29.82$35.85$41.98
Upside / Downside-76.06%-71.22%-66.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,540.003,294.173,065.412,852.532,654.442,470.102,544.20
Payout Ratio59.52%65.62%71.71%77.81%83.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,107.002,161.492,198.262,219.492,227.182,223.092,353.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-7.94%-6.94%-5.94%
Year 1 PV (M)2,046.102,068.322,090.55
Year 2 PV (M)1,969.802,012.832,056.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,882.651,944.672,008.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,788.311,867.291,948.86
Year 5 PV (M)1,689.731,783.521,881.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,878.86125,477.58132,366.13
Equity Value (M)128,255.45135,154.22142,351.34
Shares Outstanding (M)702.16702.16702.16
Fair Value$182.66$192.48$202.73
Upside / Downside46.60%54.48%62.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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