Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hong Leong Finance Limited (S41.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.28 - $3.55$2.87
Multi-Stage$4.58 - $5.03$4.80
Blended Fair Value$3.83
Current Price$2.57
Upside49.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.10%0.73%0.130.170.120.090.130.150.140.100.100.10
YoY Growth---23.87%39.70%29.86%-31.47%-9.76%7.30%40.32%0.20%0.01%-16.59%
Dividend Yield--5.16%6.67%5.02%3.86%5.64%5.59%5.48%3.63%4.62%4.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.5313.468.07
Cash Retained (M)26.3526.3526.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.53-13.46-8.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.8112.8918.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)448.58448.58448.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.27%-0.27%0.73%
Fair Value$2.28$2.87$3.55
Upside / Downside-11.20%11.54%37.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.66107.36107.07106.77106.48106.19109.37
Payout Ratio75.53%78.42%81.32%84.21%87.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.3184.1987.0689.9192.7595.57101.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.27%-0.27%0.73%
Year 1 PV (M)77.8778.6679.45
Year 2 PV (M)74.4876.0077.53
Year 3 PV (M)71.1573.3375.56
Year 4 PV (M)67.8870.6873.55
Year 5 PV (M)64.7068.0471.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,698.831,786.631,878.03
Equity Value (M)2,054.922,153.342,255.64
Shares Outstanding (M)448.58448.58448.58
Fair Value$4.58$4.80$5.03
Upside / Downside78.25%86.78%95.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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