Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.37 - $30.75$24.56
Multi-Stage$23.33 - $25.47$24.38
Blended Fair Value$24.47
Current Price$61.06
Upside-59.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.52%-2.55%1.150.571.131.980.070.270.270.260.102.05
YoY Growth--102.09%-49.78%-42.76%2,689.57%-73.81%0.73%2.66%153.45%-94.96%37.78%
Dividend Yield--2.65%0.93%2.54%4.07%0.22%3.17%1.02%0.89%0.47%10.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)190.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.0023.7514.25
Cash Retained (M)75.0975.0975.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.00-23.75-14.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.0951.3460.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.08103.08103.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.500.59
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.500.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Fair Value$19.37$24.56$30.75
Upside / Downside-68.27%-59.78%-49.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)190.00195.97202.14208.50215.06221.83228.48
Payout Ratio60.48%66.38%72.29%78.19%84.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.91130.09146.12163.03180.86199.64211.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Year 1 PV (M)117.20118.35119.50
Year 2 PV (M)118.60120.94123.29
Year 3 PV (M)119.22122.75126.36
Year 4 PV (M)119.15123.88128.76
Year 5 PV (M)118.50124.41130.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,812.481,902.951,997.00
Equity Value (M)2,405.142,513.282,625.47
Shares Outstanding (M)103.08103.08103.08
Fair Value$23.33$24.38$25.47
Upside / Downside-61.79%-60.07%-58.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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