Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $81.40 - $131.81 | $104.05 |
| Multi-Stage | $103.94 - $113.62 | $108.69 |
| Blended Fair Value | $106.37 | |
| Current Price | $108.24 | |
| Upside | -1.73% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 10.95% | 4.36 | 4.31 | 6.62 | 3.29 | 2.85 | 0.00 | 2.19 | 2.10 | 4.12 | 1.80 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.29% | -34.93% | 101.22% | 15.25% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 4.12% | -48.93% | 129.17% | 16.49% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.03% | 4.52% | 6.35% | 2.82% | 3.90% | 0.00% | 2.48% | 2.58% | 5.64% | 2.25% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,891.30 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,126.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 765.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 378.26 | 236.41 | 141.85 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 765.30 | 765.30 | 765.30 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -378.26 | -236.41 | -141.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 387.04 | 528.89 | 623.45 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 257.13 | 257.13 | 257.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.51 | 2.06 | 2.42 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.38 | 4.38 | 4.38 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.51 | 2.06 | 2.42 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.88 | 6.44 | 6.80 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.11% | 9.11% | 9.11% |
| Growth Rate | 1.76% | 2.76% | 3.76% |
| Fair Value | $81.40 | $104.05 | $131.81 |
| Upside / Downside | -24.80% | -3.87% | 21.77% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,891.30 | 1,943.44 | 1,997.01 | 2,052.07 | 2,108.64 | 2,166.77 | 2,231.77 |
| Payout Ratio | 59.54% | 65.63% | 71.72% | 77.81% | 83.91% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,126.00 | 1,275.45 | 1,432.29 | 1,596.80 | 1,769.30 | 1,950.09 | 2,064.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.11% | 9.11% | 9.11% |
| Growth Rate | 1.76% | 2.76% | 3.76% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,157.56 | 1,168.93 | 1,180.31 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,179.74 | 1,203.04 | 1,226.57 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,193.67 | 1,229.21 | 1,265.45 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,200.37 | 1,248.25 | 1,297.56 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,200.73 | 1,260.90 | 1,323.46 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 20,795.04 | 21,837.12 | 22,920.57 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,727.10 | 27,947.46 | 29,213.91 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 257.13 | 257.13 | 257.13 |
| Fair Value | $103.94 | $108.69 | $113.62 |
| Upside / Downside | -3.97% | 0.42% | 4.97% |
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