Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.40 - $193.58$138.47
Multi-Stage$97.12 - $106.26$101.61
Blended Fair Value$120.04
Current Price$158.92
Upside-24.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.74%11.24%1.501.391.321.240.311.131.030.760.660.59
YoY Growth--7.46%5.45%6.46%299.51%-72.58%9.67%36.22%15.32%11.61%14.16%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.06%1.24%1.24%0.24%1.27%1.06%0.94%1.01%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,085.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)518.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,567.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)417.19260.75156.45
Cash Retained (M)1,567.541,567.541,567.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-417.19-260.75-156.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,150.351,306.791,411.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)326.62326.62326.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.524.004.32
LTM Dividend per Share1.591.591.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.524.004.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.115.595.91
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$101.40$138.47$193.58
Upside / Downside-36.19%-12.87%21.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,085.962,184.742,288.202,396.552,510.042,628.902,707.77
Payout Ratio24.85%37.88%50.91%63.94%76.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)518.42827.631,164.961,532.381,931.992,366.012,504.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)752.31759.56766.81
Year 2 PV (M)962.56981.211,000.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,150.911,184.521,218.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,318.981,370.581,423.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,468.271,540.421,615.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,070.0327,351.0528,681.95
Equity Value (M)31,723.0533,187.3334,706.61
Shares Outstanding (M)326.62326.62326.62
Fair Value$97.12$101.61$106.26
Upside / Downside-38.88%-36.06%-33.14%

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