Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.52 - $147.43$115.25
Multi-Stage$105.00 - $114.58$109.70
Blended Fair Value$112.47
Current Price$349.53
Upside-67.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.56%5.38%5.225.044.794.594.394.184.063.893.453.34
YoY Growth--3.50%5.27%4.43%4.49%5.14%2.83%4.31%12.82%3.31%8.03%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.76%1.54%1.78%1.26%1.67%2.00%2.59%1.76%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)869.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)591.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)278.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.80108.6365.18
Cash Retained (M)278.00278.00278.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.80-108.63-65.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.20169.38212.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.20113.20113.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.501.88
LTM Dividend per Share5.225.225.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.501.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.146.727.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Fair Value$89.52$115.25$147.43
Upside / Downside-74.39%-67.03%-57.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)869.00899.97932.05965.26999.661,035.291,066.35
Payout Ratio68.01%72.41%76.81%81.20%85.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)591.00651.65715.86783.83855.73931.76986.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Year 1 PV (M)588.83594.57600.31
Year 2 PV (M)584.49595.95607.51
Year 3 PV (M)578.29595.37612.79
Year 4 PV (M)570.48593.05616.29
Year 5 PV (M)561.28589.18618.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,002.599,450.119,915.25
Equity Value (M)11,885.9612,418.2312,970.33
Shares Outstanding (M)113.20113.20113.20
Fair Value$105.00$109.70$114.58
Upside / Downside-69.96%-68.61%-67.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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