Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $38.77 - $102.86 | $59.29 |
| Multi-Stage | $28.00 - $30.51 | $29.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $44.26 | |
| Current Price | $11.39 | |
| Upside | 288.59% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -6.15% | 9.96% | 1.10 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 0.70 | 0.62 | 1.51 | 1.23 | 1.06 | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.01% | 2.25% | 48.54% | 13.05% | -58.84% | 22.05% | 16.07% | 31.57% | 43.03% | 33.11% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.58% | 9.74% | 13.01% | 6.38% | 5.51% | 30.06% | 7.19% | 6.46% | 4.76% | 4.86% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 886.63 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 632.70 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 253.92 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 177.33 | 110.83 | 66.50 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 253.92 | 253.92 | 253.92 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -177.33 | -110.83 | -66.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 76.60 | 143.09 | 187.42 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 536.38 | 536.38 | 536.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.32 | 1.45 | 1.53 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $38.77 | $59.29 | $102.86 |
| Upside / Downside | 240.43% | 420.55% | 803.06% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 886.63 | 944.26 | 1,005.63 | 1,071.00 | 1,140.61 | 1,214.75 | 1,251.20 |
| Payout Ratio | 71.36% | 75.09% | 78.82% | 82.54% | 86.27% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 632.70 | 709.03 | 792.60 | 884.05 | 984.03 | 1,093.28 | 1,157.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 643.80 | 649.90 | 656.00 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 653.47 | 665.92 | 678.49 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 661.81 | 680.81 | 700.17 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 668.89 | 694.61 | 721.07 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 674.78 | 707.37 | 741.21 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,714.13 | 12,279.92 | 12,867.37 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,016.88 | 15,678.54 | 16,364.31 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 536.38 | 536.38 | 536.38 |
| Fair Value | $28.00 | $29.23 | $30.51 |
| Upside / Downside | 145.80% | 156.63% | 167.86% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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