Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11.65 - $14.67 | $13.29 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.27 - $26.04 | $24.62 |
| Blended Fair Value | $18.96 | |
| Current Price | $12.03 | |
| Upside | 57.59% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -28.58% | 0.00% | 3.04 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 1.93 | 16.38 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4,146.67% | 5.14% | -93.76% | -43.50% | -88.19% | 25,189.90% | -63.47% | -20.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 28.39% | 0.74% | 0.79% | 8.33% | 14.48% | 140.14% | 0.73% | 1.64% | 2.79% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 44.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 16.67 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 27.33 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 8.80 | 5.50 | 3.30 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 27.33 | 27.33 | 27.33 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -8.80 | -5.50 | -3.30 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 18.53 | 21.83 | 24.03 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6.46 | 6.46 | 6.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.87 | 3.38 | 3.72 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.58 | 2.58 | 2.58 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.87 | 3.38 | 3.72 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.45 | 5.96 | 6.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -25.68% | -24.68% | -23.68% |
| Fair Value | $11.65 | $13.29 | $14.67 |
| Upside / Downside | -3.18% | 10.50% | 21.98% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 44.00 | 33.15 | 24.97 | 18.81 | 14.17 | 10.67 | 10.99 |
| Payout Ratio | 37.89% | 48.31% | 58.73% | 69.16% | 79.58% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 16.67 | 16.01 | 14.66 | 13.01 | 11.27 | 9.60 | 10.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -25.68% | -24.68% | -23.68% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 14.48 | 14.68 | 14.87 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 12.00 | 12.32 | 12.65 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 9.62 | 10.02 | 10.42 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 7.54 | 7.96 | 8.39 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5.81 | 6.21 | 6.64 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 100.89 | 107.87 | 115.22 |
| Equity Value (M) | 150.35 | 159.05 | 168.19 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6.46 | 6.46 | 6.46 |
| Fair Value | $23.27 | $24.62 | $26.04 |
| Upside / Downside | 93.47% | 104.67% | 116.43% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
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