Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.82 - $109.04$58.17
Multi-Stage$26.26 - $28.60$27.41
Blended Fair Value$42.79
Current Price$41.11
Upside4.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.35%-6.62%0.041.310.910.590.450.380.240.180.150.12
YoY Growth---96.94%43.57%54.53%32.73%15.79%60.59%32.92%21.93%25.49%47.71%
Dividend Yield--0.10%2.69%1.53%0.79%0.88%0.94%0.66%0.63%0.66%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)333.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)300.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.7341.7125.03
Cash Retained (M)32.9132.9132.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.73-41.71-25.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-33.83-8.807.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.23230.23230.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.040.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.311.311.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.040.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.82$58.17$109.04
Upside / Downside-10.43%41.50%165.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)333.67355.36378.45403.05429.25457.15470.87
Payout Ratio90.14%90.11%90.08%90.06%90.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)300.76320.21340.92362.97386.44411.44435.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)291.49294.25297.02
Year 2 PV (M)282.51287.89293.32
Year 3 PV (M)273.80281.66289.67
Year 4 PV (M)265.36275.57286.06
Year 5 PV (M)257.18269.60282.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,676.624,902.505,137.03
Equity Value (M)6,046.966,311.486,585.60
Shares Outstanding (M)230.23230.23230.23
Fair Value$26.26$27.41$28.60
Upside / Downside-36.11%-33.32%-30.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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