Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.74 - $7.45 | $6.64 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.95 - $19.99 | $18.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.80 | |
| Current Price | $8.31 | |
| Upside | 53.97% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -13.75% | -15.48% | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.78 | 1.01 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.80 | 2.56 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -11.07% | -7.02% | -8.06% | -18.97% | -22.54% | -13.92% | -12.21% | -25.99% | -29.66% | -0.87% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.73% | 7.27% | 7.91% | 7.29% | 10.44% | 12.15% | 15.85% | 13.80% | 18.36% | 32.21% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 16.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6.96 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3.23 | 2.02 | 1.21 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9.19 | 9.19 | 9.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3.23 | -2.02 | -1.21 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5.96 | 7.17 | 7.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 8.41 | 8.41 | 8.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.54 | 1.68 | 1.78 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.82% | 6.82% | 6.82% |
| Growth Rate | -15.75% | -14.75% | -13.75% |
| Fair Value | $5.74 | $6.64 | $7.45 |
| Upside / Downside | -30.96% | -20.06% | -10.34% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 16.15 | 13.77 | 11.74 | 10.01 | 8.53 | 7.27 | 7.49 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.10% | 52.48% | 61.86% | 71.24% | 80.62% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6.96 | 7.23 | 7.26 | 7.13 | 6.88 | 6.54 | 6.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.82% | 6.82% | 6.82% |
| Growth Rate | -15.75% | -14.75% | -13.75% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 6.69 | 6.77 | 6.85 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 6.22 | 6.36 | 6.51 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5.65 | 5.85 | 6.06 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5.04 | 5.28 | 5.53 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4.44 | 4.71 | 4.99 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 122.84 | 130.31 | 138.13 |
| Equity Value (M) | 150.86 | 159.27 | 168.07 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 8.41 | 8.41 | 8.41 |
| Fair Value | $17.95 | $18.95 | $19.99 |
| Upside / Downside | 115.96% | 128.00% | 140.59% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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