Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ryder System, Inc. (R)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$186.78 - $355.35$254.72
Multi-Stage$171.43 - $187.41$179.27
Blended Fair Value$217.00
Current Price$188.64
Upside15.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.00%6.07%3.173.012.892.872.802.742.632.252.141.95
YoY Growth--5.47%4.07%0.82%2.49%2.20%4.12%16.75%5.24%9.43%11.13%
Dividend Yield--2.20%2.50%3.24%3.61%3.70%10.34%4.12%3.09%2.83%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)142.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.4062.7537.65
Cash Retained (M)360.00360.00360.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.40-62.75-37.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.60297.25322.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.5842.5842.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.106.987.57
LTM Dividend per Share3.333.333.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.106.987.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4310.3210.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Fair Value$186.78$254.72$355.35
Upside / Downside-0.99%35.03%88.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)502.00527.46554.22582.33611.87642.90662.19
Payout Ratio28.29%40.63%52.97%65.31%77.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)142.00214.31293.58380.35475.16578.61612.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Year 1 PV (M)194.16196.02197.89
Year 2 PV (M)240.97245.62250.32
Year 3 PV (M)282.84291.07299.46
Year 4 PV (M)320.12332.60345.44
Year 5 PV (M)353.16370.46388.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,908.666,198.046,498.65
Equity Value (M)7,299.907,633.817,980.18
Shares Outstanding (M)42.5842.5842.58
Fair Value$171.43$179.27$187.41
Upside / Downside-9.12%-4.97%-0.65%

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