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Definitive Analysis

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Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.27 - $1.65$1.47
Multi-Stage$2.79 - $3.08$2.93
Blended Fair Value$2.20
Current Price$6.26
Upside-64.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.29%-17.08%0.190.000.030.030.191.151.261.261.231.25
YoY Growth--9,300.00%-92.86%0.00%-85.26%-83.36%-9.22%0.64%2.29%-1.93%1.80%
Dividend Yield--3.46%0.04%0.66%0.41%5.40%45.50%10.40%4.95%4.86%9.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.122.581.55
Cash Retained (M)7.307.307.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.12-2.58-1.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.184.735.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.8049.8049.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate-13.18%-12.18%-11.18%
Fair Value$1.27$1.47$1.65
Upside / Downside-79.66%-76.45%-73.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.6018.0915.8913.9512.2510.7611.08
Payout Ratio64.56%69.65%74.74%79.83%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.3012.6011.8711.1410.409.6810.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate-13.18%-12.18%-11.18%
Year 1 PV (M)11.3911.5211.65
Year 2 PV (M)9.709.9210.15
Year 3 PV (M)8.228.518.80
Year 4 PV (M)6.947.277.61
Year 5 PV (M)5.846.196.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)96.92102.63108.61
Equity Value (M)139.01146.04153.37
Shares Outstanding (M)49.8049.8049.80
Fair Value$2.79$2.93$3.08
Upside / Downside-55.41%-53.16%-50.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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