Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.96 - $493.62$462.60
Multi-Stage$63.40 - $69.36$66.33
Blended Fair Value$264.46
Current Price$15.39
Upside1,618.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.99%12.05%0.450.290.210.110.180.300.160.350.330.24
YoY Growth--52.83%40.00%94.44%-38.87%-42.27%93.67%-55.87%8.70%37.60%66.20%
Dividend Yield--3.75%2.89%2.27%1.30%2.67%3.36%2.20%4.23%3.65%2.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,475.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,281.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)751.20469.50281.70
Cash Retained (M)2,281.002,281.002,281.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-751.20-469.50-281.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,529.801,811.501,999.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,513.251,513.251,513.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.201.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.201.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.172.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$139.96$462.60$493.62
Upside / Downside809.41%2,905.83%3,107.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,756.004,000.144,260.154,537.064,831.975,146.055,300.43
Payout Ratio39.27%49.42%59.56%69.71%79.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,475.001,976.732,537.443,162.703,858.524,631.444,902.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,830.121,847.461,864.81
Year 2 PV (M)2,175.012,216.432,258.25
Year 3 PV (M)2,509.892,581.942,655.36
Year 4 PV (M)2,834.982,944.003,056.14
Year 5 PV (M)3,150.483,302.653,460.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,445.3587,475.8091,660.49
Equity Value (M)95,945.82100,368.28104,955.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,513.251,513.251,513.25
Fair Value$63.40$66.33$69.36
Upside / Downside311.98%330.97%350.67%

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