Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9.58 - $13.79 | $11.64 |
| Multi-Stage | $16.84 - $18.41 | $17.61 |
| Blended Fair Value | $14.62 | |
| Current Price | $13.91 | |
| Upside | 5.13% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.49% | 0.00% | 1.28 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 17.84% | 4.50% | 30.80% | -8.39% | 11.56% | 6.10% | 10.72% | -0.94% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.23% | 7.57% | 7.98% | 6.78% | 4.75% | 4.85% | 3.95% | 3.96% | 3.99% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 230.42 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 203.69 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 26.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 46.08 | 28.80 | 17.28 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 26.73 | 26.73 | 26.73 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -46.08 | -28.80 | -17.28 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -19.35 | -2.07 | 9.45 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 169.86 | 169.86 | 169.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $9.58 | $11.64 | $13.79 |
| Upside / Downside | -31.11% | -16.34% | -0.85% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 230.42 | 228.11 | 225.83 | 223.57 | 221.34 | 219.13 | 225.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 88.40% | 88.72% | 89.04% | 89.36% | 89.68% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 203.69 | 202.38 | 201.08 | 199.79 | 198.50 | 197.21 | 208.77 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 183.63 | 185.50 | 187.38 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 165.55 | 168.94 | 172.37 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 149.24 | 153.86 | 158.57 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 134.54 | 140.12 | 145.86 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 121.28 | 127.60 | 134.18 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,105.50 | 2,215.13 | 2,329.29 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,859.74 | 2,991.15 | 3,127.65 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 169.86 | 169.86 | 169.86 |
| Fair Value | $16.84 | $17.61 | $18.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 21.03% | 26.60% | 32.37% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
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