Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $23.34 - $31.26 | $27.42 |
| Multi-Stage | $48.40 - $53.27 | $50.79 |
| Blended Fair Value | $39.11 | |
| Current Price | $20.14 | |
| Upside | 94.17% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -5.86% | 0.00% | 1.51 | 1.56 | 2.16 | 1.86 | 1.96 | 2.05 | 2.16 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.29% | -27.61% | 15.85% | -4.68% | -4.37% | -5.23% | -11.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.65% | 8.27% | 11.54% | 6.96% | 6.96% | 6.49% | 9.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 64.59 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 36.35 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 28.24 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 12.92 | 8.07 | 4.84 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 28.24 | 28.24 | 28.24 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -12.92 | -8.07 | -4.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 15.32 | 20.16 | 23.39 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 12.03 | 12.03 | 12.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.27 | 1.68 | 1.94 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.02 | 3.02 | 3.02 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.27 | 1.68 | 1.94 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.30 | 4.70 | 4.97 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.86% | -6.86% | -5.86% |
| Fair Value | $23.34 | $27.42 | $31.26 |
| Upside / Downside | 15.89% | 36.16% | 55.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 64.59 | 60.16 | 56.03 | 52.18 | 48.60 | 45.27 | 46.63 |
| Payout Ratio | 56.28% | 63.02% | 69.77% | 76.51% | 83.26% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 36.35 | 37.91 | 39.09 | 39.93 | 40.47 | 40.74 | 43.13 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.86% | -6.86% | -5.86% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 34.38 | 34.75 | 35.12 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 32.14 | 32.84 | 33.55 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 29.77 | 30.75 | 31.75 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 27.36 | 28.56 | 29.81 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 24.98 | 26.36 | 27.81 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 433.59 | 457.63 | 482.73 |
| Equity Value (M) | 582.21 | 610.90 | 640.78 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 12.03 | 12.03 | 12.03 |
| Fair Value | $48.40 | $50.79 | $53.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 140.34% | 152.18% | 164.52% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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