Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.37 - $36.44$25.45
Multi-Stage$17.54 - $19.21$18.36
Blended Fair Value$21.90
Current Price$46.29
Upside-52.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.53%0.00%0.710.710.700.710.670.620.580.540.000.00
YoY Growth---0.30%1.58%-1.58%5.56%7.71%7.64%6.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.33%1.22%1.61%1.54%1.67%1.58%1.16%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.716.073.64
Cash Retained (M)40.2440.2440.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.71-6.07-3.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.5334.1736.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.4944.4944.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Fair Value$18.37$25.45$36.44
Upside / Downside-60.32%-45.03%-21.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.5450.8053.1855.6658.2760.9962.82
Payout Ratio17.10%31.68%46.26%60.84%75.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.3016.1024.6033.8743.9454.8958.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Year 1 PV (M)14.6814.8214.96
Year 2 PV (M)20.4620.8621.26
Year 3 PV (M)25.6926.4427.21
Year 4 PV (M)30.4031.5932.82
Year 5 PV (M)34.6336.3438.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)654.63686.81720.25
Equity Value (M)780.49816.86854.60
Shares Outstanding (M)44.4944.4944.49
Fair Value$17.54$18.36$19.21
Upside / Downside-62.10%-60.34%-58.51%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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