Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $64.73 - $171.71 | $98.98 |
| Multi-Stage | $46.79 - $50.98 | $48.85 |
| Blended Fair Value | $73.91 | |
| Current Price | $44.00 | |
| Upside | 67.99% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.34% | 8.68% | 1.82 | 1.63 | 1.44 | 1.37 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.14 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 11.73% | 13.29% | 5.33% | 7.14% | 4.48% | 7.20% | 5.93% | 7.27% | 13.40% | 11.49% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.08% | 3.89% | 2.94% | 2.48% | 2.69% | 2.55% | 2.20% | 2.65% | 2.26% | 2.24% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 303.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 219.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 84.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 60.60 | 37.88 | 22.73 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 84.00 | 84.00 | 84.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -60.60 | -37.88 | -22.73 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 23.40 | 46.13 | 61.28 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 109.80 | 109.80 | 109.80 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.99 | 1.99 | 1.99 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.21 | 2.41 | 2.55 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $64.73 | $98.98 | $171.71 |
| Upside / Downside | 47.12% | 124.96% | 290.26% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 303.00 | 322.70 | 343.67 | 366.01 | 389.80 | 415.14 | 427.59 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.28% | 75.82% | 79.37% | 82.91% | 86.46% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 219.00 | 244.67 | 272.76 | 303.46 | 337.00 | 373.62 | 395.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 222.16 | 224.27 | 226.37 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 224.88 | 229.16 | 233.49 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 227.18 | 233.70 | 240.34 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 229.07 | 237.88 | 246.95 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 230.60 | 241.74 | 253.30 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,003.25 | 4,196.61 | 4,397.37 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,137.14 | 5,363.36 | 5,597.82 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 109.80 | 109.80 | 109.80 |
| Fair Value | $46.79 | $48.85 | $50.98 |
| Upside / Downside | 6.33% | 11.01% | 15.87% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
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| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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