Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $45.37 - $117.30 | $109.93 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.39 - $18.99 | $18.18 |
| Blended Fair Value | $64.05 | |
| Current Price | $6.80 | |
| Upside | 841.93% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 38.74% | 0.00% | 0.49 | 0.17 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 188.41% | -77.65% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.05% | 2.07% | 6.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 265.42 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 234.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 31.42 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 53.08 | 33.18 | 19.91 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 31.42 | 31.42 | 31.42 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -53.08 | -33.18 | -19.91 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -21.66 | -1.76 | 11.51 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 450.00 | 450.00 | 450.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.60% | 6.60% | 6.60% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $45.37 | $109.93 | $117.30 |
| Upside / Downside | 567.16% | 1,516.58% | 1,625.00% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 265.42 | 282.67 | 301.04 | 320.61 | 341.45 | 363.65 | 374.56 |
| Payout Ratio | 88.16% | 88.53% | 88.90% | 89.26% | 89.63% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 234.00 | 250.25 | 267.62 | 286.19 | 306.05 | 327.28 | 346.46 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.60% | 6.60% | 6.60% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 232.56 | 234.76 | 236.96 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 231.12 | 235.52 | 239.96 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 229.68 | 236.28 | 243.00 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 228.26 | 237.03 | 246.06 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 226.83 | 237.79 | 249.16 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 6,675.22 | 6,997.63 | 7,332.39 |
| Equity Value (M) | 7,823.66 | 8,179.01 | 8,547.54 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 450.00 | 450.00 | 450.00 |
| Fair Value | $17.39 | $18.18 | $18.99 |
| Upside / Downside | 155.68% | 167.29% | 179.33% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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