Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $182.36 - $387.53 | $363.17 |
| Multi-Stage | $59.61 - $65.21 | $62.36 |
| Blended Fair Value | $212.77 | |
| Current Price | $40.70 | |
| Upside | 422.77% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.49% | 9.91% | 1.69 | 1.40 | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 20.75% | 5.73% | 6.08% | 14.69% | 6.00% | 9.37% | 9.22% | 10.15% | 9.92% | 8.04% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.15% | 3.74% | 2.72% | 2.61% | 2.22% | 2.70% | 2.01% | 2.24% | 2.11% | 2.10% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 176.66 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 101.85 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 74.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 35.33 | 22.08 | 13.25 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 74.81 | 74.81 | 74.81 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -35.33 | -22.08 | -13.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 39.48 | 52.73 | 61.56 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 90.66 | 90.66 | 90.66 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.44 | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.44 | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1.80 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $182.36 | $363.17 | $387.53 |
| Upside / Downside | 348.06% | 792.32% | 852.17% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 176.66 | 188.14 | 200.37 | 213.39 | 227.26 | 242.04 | 249.30 |
| Payout Ratio | 57.65% | 64.12% | 70.59% | 77.06% | 83.53% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 101.85 | 120.64 | 141.44 | 164.44 | 189.83 | 217.83 | 230.60 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 112.31 | 113.38 | 114.44 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 122.60 | 124.93 | 127.29 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 132.70 | 136.51 | 140.39 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 142.62 | 148.11 | 153.75 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 152.37 | 159.73 | 167.37 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,741.47 | 4,970.49 | 5,208.27 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,404.08 | 5,653.15 | 5,911.51 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 90.66 | 90.66 | 90.66 |
| Fair Value | $59.61 | $62.36 | $65.21 |
| Upside / Downside | 46.46% | 53.21% | 60.21% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
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| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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