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Definitive Analysis

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The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$388.16 - $1,039.96$595.35
Multi-Stage$269.73 - $294.45$281.86
Blended Fair Value$438.61
Current Price$200.93
Upside118.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.01%9.76%6.386.196.025.174.984.774.033.182.672.61
YoY Growth--3.09%2.93%16.29%3.84%4.49%18.36%26.46%19.32%2.22%3.80%
Dividend Yield--3.63%3.87%4.73%2.80%2.84%4.98%3.17%2.11%2.22%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,526.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,603.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,923.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,305.20815.75489.45
Cash Retained (M)3,923.003,923.003,923.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,305.20-815.75-489.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,617.803,107.253,433.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.50397.50397.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.597.828.64
LTM Dividend per Share6.556.556.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.597.828.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.1314.3715.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$388.16$595.35$1,039.96
Upside / Downside93.18%196.30%417.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,526.006,950.197,401.957,883.088,395.488,941.199,209.42
Payout Ratio39.89%49.91%59.93%69.95%79.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,603.003,468.794,436.145,514.586,714.488,047.078,518.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,150.483,180.343,210.20
Year 2 PV (M)3,659.333,729.033,799.39
Year 3 PV (M)4,131.504,250.104,370.95
Year 4 PV (M)4,568.844,744.544,925.27
Year 5 PV (M)4,973.135,213.335,462.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)86,734.5390,923.8495,273.49
Equity Value (M)107,217.80112,041.18117,042.02
Shares Outstanding (M)397.50397.50397.50
Fair Value$269.73$281.86$294.45
Upside / Downside34.24%40.28%46.54%

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