Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

P.T. Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (PNBN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$845.45 - $1,239.30$1,035.13
Multi-Stage$1,566.82 - $1,722.38$1,643.09
Blended Fair Value$1,339.11
Current Price$1,080.00
Upside23.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.008.0319.980.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-59.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.70%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,669,386.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,010,762.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)533,877.20333,673.25200,203.95
Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.001,658,624.001,658,624.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-533,877.20-333,673.25-200,203.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,124,746.801,324,950.751,458,420.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
LTM Dividend per Share41.9841.9841.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.7097.02102.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Fair Value$845.45$1,035.13$1,239.30
Upside / Downside-21.72%-4.15%14.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,669,386.002,635,369.142,601,785.782,568,630.372,535,897.482,503,581.712,578,689.16
Payout Ratio37.86%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,010,762.001,272,671.671,527,742.001,776,104.772,017,889.512,253,223.542,385,287.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Year 1 PV (M)1,166,693.261,178,631.711,190,570.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,283,898.361,310,308.361,336,987.22
Year 3 PV (M)1,368,325.811,410,762.211,454,067.07
Year 4 PV (M)1,425,143.621,484,377.511,545,438.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,458,833.891,535,016.371,614,348.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,018,648.9032,638,488.8834,325,305.32
Equity Value (M)37,721,543.8439,557,585.0441,466,717.55
Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
Fair Value$1,566.82$1,643.09$1,722.38
Upside / Downside45.08%52.14%59.48%

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