Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (PLOW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.19 - $24.70$20.17
Multi-Stage$25.60 - $28.03$26.79
Blended Fair Value$23.48
Current Price$31.26
Upside-24.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.76%3.44%1.171.171.151.131.101.071.040.940.910.86
YoY Growth--0.13%1.54%1.90%2.30%2.95%3.28%10.96%2.44%6.34%2.93%
Dividend Yield--5.03%4.81%3.61%3.26%2.39%3.02%2.71%2.16%2.98%3.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.395.253.15
Cash Retained (M)14.0714.0714.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.39-5.25-3.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.688.8310.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.4923.4923.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.380.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.380.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate-0.24%0.76%1.76%
Fair Value$16.19$20.17$24.70
Upside / Downside-48.22%-35.47%-20.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.9742.2942.6142.9343.2643.5944.89
Payout Ratio66.47%71.18%75.88%80.59%85.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9030.1032.3334.6036.9039.2341.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate-0.24%0.76%1.76%
Year 1 PV (M)27.4527.7228.00
Year 2 PV (M)26.8927.4327.98
Year 3 PV (M)26.2427.0427.85
Year 4 PV (M)25.5226.5627.63
Year 5 PV (M)24.7426.0127.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)470.56494.62519.66
Equity Value (M)601.40629.38658.44
Shares Outstanding (M)23.4923.4923.49
Fair Value$25.60$26.79$28.03
Upside / Downside-18.11%-14.30%-10.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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