Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

PHX Minerals Inc. (PHX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.83 - $1.12$0.98
Multi-Stage$2.00 - $2.20$2.10
Blended Fair Value$1.54
Current Price$3.95
Upside-61.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.140.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.380.860.52
Cash Retained (M)1.281.281.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.38-0.86-0.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.100.420.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.0837.0837.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate-8.15%-7.15%-6.15%
Fair Value$0.83$0.98$1.12
Upside / Downside-78.88%-75.12%-71.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.896.405.945.525.124.764.90
Payout Ratio81.44%83.15%84.86%86.57%88.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.615.325.044.774.524.284.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate-8.15%-7.15%-6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)4.864.924.97
Year 2 PV (M)4.214.304.40
Year 3 PV (M)3.653.773.89
Year 4 PV (M)3.163.303.44
Year 5 PV (M)2.732.883.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)55.4358.5161.73
Equity Value (M)74.0477.6881.47
Shares Outstanding (M)37.0837.0837.08
Fair Value$2.00$2.10$2.20
Upside / Downside-49.45%-46.96%-44.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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