Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.11 - $196.29$141.50
Multi-Stage$154.04 - $168.90$161.33
Blended Fair Value$151.41
Current Price$153.65
Upside-1.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.85%3.08%4.033.803.673.583.373.183.062.982.953.04
YoY Growth--6.01%3.48%2.61%6.14%6.09%3.88%2.57%1.02%-2.69%2.04%
Dividend Yield--2.62%2.19%2.52%2.84%2.41%2.29%2.46%3.57%3.25%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,765.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,976.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,789.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,353.002,095.631,257.38
Cash Retained (M)6,789.006,789.006,789.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,353.00-2,095.63-1,257.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,436.004,693.385,531.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,449.782,449.782,449.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.401.922.26
LTM Dividend per Share4.074.074.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.401.922.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.475.996.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate1.50%2.50%3.50%
Fair Value$104.11$141.50$196.29
Upside / Downside-32.24%-7.91%27.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,765.0017,184.8517,615.2218,056.3618,508.5618,972.0719,541.23
Payout Ratio59.50%65.60%71.70%77.80%83.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,976.0011,273.9412,630.6314,048.2115,528.8617,074.8618,075.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate1.50%2.50%3.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,449.0110,551.9510,654.89
Year 2 PV (M)10,849.8511,064.6911,281.63
Year 3 PV (M)11,184.5711,518.4011,858.81
Year 4 PV (M)11,458.7511,917.0212,388.91
Year 5 PV (M)11,677.6212,264.3012,874.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)321,742.00337,906.05354,713.32
Equity Value (M)377,361.80395,222.41413,771.88
Shares Outstanding (M)2,449.782,449.782,449.78
Fair Value$154.04$161.33$168.90
Upside / Downside0.25%5.00%9.93%

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