Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $37.38 - $99.15 | $57.15 |
| Multi-Stage | $26.68 - $29.09 | $27.87 |
| Blended Fair Value | $42.51 | |
| Current Price | $19.28 | |
| Upside | 120.49% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.76% | 10.83% | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 39.35% | 0.59% | 0.76% | 8.59% | -9.59% | 35.83% | -10.63% | 32.20% | 9.89% | 14.31% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.51% | 3.83% | 2.88% | 2.34% | 2.27% | 4.34% | 1.56% | 1.80% | 1.35% | 1.57% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 207.73 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 126.98 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 80.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 41.55 | 25.97 | 15.58 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 80.75 | 80.75 | 80.75 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -41.55 | -25.97 | -15.58 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 39.20 | 54.78 | 65.17 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 130.37 | 130.37 | 130.37 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.47 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $37.38 | $57.15 | $99.15 |
| Upside / Downside | 93.87% | 196.44% | 414.28% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 207.73 | 221.23 | 235.61 | 250.93 | 267.24 | 284.61 | 293.14 |
| Payout Ratio | 61.13% | 66.90% | 72.68% | 78.45% | 84.23% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 126.98 | 148.01 | 171.24 | 196.85 | 225.08 | 256.15 | 271.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 134.39 | 135.67 | 136.94 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 141.18 | 143.87 | 146.58 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 147.37 | 151.60 | 155.91 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 153.00 | 158.88 | 164.93 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 158.09 | 165.73 | 173.66 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,744.52 | 2,877.09 | 3,014.72 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,478.55 | 3,632.83 | 3,792.74 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 130.37 | 130.37 | 130.37 |
| Fair Value | $26.68 | $27.87 | $29.09 |
| Upside / Downside | 38.40% | 44.54% | 50.90% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
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