Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Patterson Companies, Inc. (PDCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.38 - $32.98$25.29
Multi-Stage$27.60 - $30.22$28.89
Blended Fair Value$27.09
Current Price$30.93
Upside-12.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.23%1.39%1.101.141.130.841.131.121.111.081.020.92
YoY Growth---2.97%0.23%34.49%-25.15%0.98%0.27%3.43%5.86%10.81%-4.55%
Dividend Yield--4.19%3.49%3.65%2.52%4.50%5.69%4.68%2.55%2.06%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7617.3510.41
Cash Retained (M)46.3046.3046.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.76-17.35-10.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.5428.9535.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.1789.1789.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.320.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.320.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Fair Value$19.38$25.29$32.98
Upside / Downside-37.34%-18.24%6.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.78142.02145.33148.73152.20155.75160.43
Payout Ratio66.64%71.31%75.98%80.66%85.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.48101.27110.43119.96129.87140.18148.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Year 1 PV (M)92.9993.9094.82
Year 2 PV (M)93.1094.9496.81
Year 3 PV (M)92.8695.6398.46
Year 4 PV (M)92.3196.0099.81
Year 5 PV (M)91.4896.09100.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,998.492,099.072,203.65
Equity Value (M)2,461.222,575.642,694.43
Shares Outstanding (M)89.1789.1789.17
Fair Value$27.60$28.89$30.22
Upside / Downside-10.76%-6.61%-2.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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